However, the situation may not be at its worst yet. As Harry Truman once remarked, “A recession is when your neighbor loses his job. A depression is when you lose yours.” In Ukraine, this saying risks turning into reality. With the enforcement of stringent quarantine measures, entire sectors have ground to a halt: aviation, tourism, domestic transportation, and partially the service sector and retail. Moreover, we lack a central bank ready to inject funds into the economy. Ukrainian businesses must rely on their own resources to weather the storm.

What sets this crisis apart is its unprecedented nature, preventing people from venturing out and severely limiting economic mobility. The world has never encountered such circumstances before. Businesses are already taking action: trimming workforces and streamlining operations. However paradoxical it may seem initially, now is not the time to slash advertising budgets. Let’s explore why.

Advertising during a “plague” may not seem like the most obvious strategy. However, the current crisis won’t be the first in history, and researchers have already examined marketing during economic downturns, from the Great Depression to Black Monday and the crash of 2008.

The conclusions are clear: cutting back on advertising during recessions isn’t advisable, as there’s a direct risk of disappearing from the market altogether. In fact, increasing expenditures may even be beneficial, but only after careful risk assessment. For instance, researchers of the American recession in 1985 calculated that companies that ramped up their marketing budgets saw a 256% increase in sales compared to those who tightened their belts. Studies from the London Business School indicate that those significantly increasing marketing spending during a crisis end up capturing twice as much market share.

The key is not to think in the short term. Downturns can be opportunities to snatch market share from competitors and then soar when the inevitable economic upturn occurs. A crisis follows a V-shaped trajectory: first, everything falls, then it rises. Even when the strategic goal is merely to survive turbulence, maintaining a strategic vision is crucial.

Of course, it just won’t be business as usual. Advertising during a crisis needs to be approached with caution. All activities should be backed by data, goals should be set based on ROI, and the most profitable options should be prioritized.

One study suggests that a tactic showing promise is reallocating budgets post-crisis (or even increased budgets) from expensive companies to a broader but more accessible presence. However, there’s no one-size-fits-all solution. Instead of reinventing the wheel, it’s better to draw from past experiences.

In 2009, Harvard Business Review conducted research on marketing during a crisis, following the global crisis of 2008. These detailed guidelines remain relevant today. Here’s what successful crisis marketing entails:

– Understanding the nature of the recession. It’s one thing to look at stock market fluctuations, but another to analyze behavioral patterns and track their changes. The current crisis is visibly reshaping the economy: entire entertainment industries are going online, retail is adapting to widespread delivery, and advertising is changing formats and messages. For many businesses, this means a complete overhaul and years of rewriting customer journeys. Therefore, it’s essential to work on algorithm changes as quickly as possible.

– Placing your product on the market matrix. HBR divides customers into four types and products into four categories. According to this classification, people are divided into: economizers, moderate economizers, affluent, and those living paycheck to paycheck. Products can be of primary necessity, indulgence goods, goods with deferred demand options, or non-essential items. These categories intersect, and if you place your product on them, they help navigate the crisis. The more economically constrained your audience and the less essential the product, the harder you’ll need to work on advertising. That means increasing budgets, intensifying creativity, and analyzing more.

– Conducting a product lineup review. A crisis is a time for ruthless honesty when you can eliminate inefficient products or directions from your lineup. But it’s also a time for launching and creating. For example, many American FMCG giants during the recession era create and actively promote successful spin-off brands. They focus on affordable prices, numerous promotions, and with their “red” price tags, become a safe haven for economically shaken customers.

Global brands have demonstrated through their own examples that cutting marketing budgets during times of crisis is not advisable.

– During the “bad” year of 2009, Amazon grew by 28% — the company actively invested in and promoted Kindle e-readers and the purchase of digital books. As a result, their sales surpassed printed products, and the company timely captured a strategically important market.

– In 2001, after the dot-com crisis hit the market, Procter & Gamble corporation wasn’t afraid to invest in launching and marketing an entire category of new products. The company launched the Swiffer WetJet cleaning brand and, against the backdrop of low competitor activity, easily conveyed the necessary message to consumers and conquered the market.

– After the 2008 crisis, PepsiCo invested in rebranding Pepsi, Mountain Dew, and other product lines. They also launched a major campaign with the slogan “Optimism,” revamped packaging, and even repositioned their products.

In Ukraine, this crisis won’t be the first either. And a number of businesses have successfully weathered them, not just with losses and closures. For example, as a former top manager of the Ukrainian representation of Mondelēz International recalls, during the 2014-2015 crisis, the company doubled its advertising spending — and for the first time outperformed Roshen in the packaged chocolate market. The company cleaned up its product portfolio and instead experimented with innovations. It required expenses but brought results.

Past recessions have indeed had varying effects, from causing the demise of businesses to birthing entirely new industries. The current crisis possesses its own unique characteristics, but there’s no reason to succumb to panic. With the right approach to marketing and product development, it’s possible to reclaim market share, even in times when market movement is sluggish. It won’t be a walk in the park, that’s for sure. But avoiding challenges altogether isn’t an option either.